The Myanmar junta has killed again. Their numbers say nine dead with 30-plus wounded. They waited and watched to get intelligence on who is leading the charge of protest for about a week. And acted.
They massacred the Buddhist monks leading the protests. No one really knows how many they killed. There are cameras and some non-Myanmar press. But they are out on the streets. Who knows what's going in the temples and monasteries.
On the
advice of MEA, particularly our Ambassador in Myanmar, Petroleum Minister Murli Deora made a weekend overnight visit, while the protest was going on, to sign a gas deal. Amb. Bhaskar Mitra probably calculated the junta would crush the protesters and it'll be business as usual in the country for another decade. He probably thought this is the time to be with the junta to check China later. Based on the
history of the past decade, we can't win geopolitical intrigue in Myanmar with China - it's itself a dictatorship and has a veto in UN. The Chinese can get away with anything.
Instead of playing the Chinese game, why not change the situation itself.
Take leaf from 1971 and march into Yangon.
(This is CIA's map.
They still call the country Burma and capital Rangoon so as not to recognize
the junta who changed the names.)
If properly planned, we could rapidly outrun the junta and we could install Aung Sun Su Kyi and withdraw rapidly after purging the generals that want dictatorship. The top generals probably have fat Swiss Bank accounts and can take a permanent holiday somewhere in East Asia.
Because it's not an Islamic country, the Iraq Islamic terror type situation would not be a factor. And we'll be able to put our geopolitical stamp on the east until Thailand border. And put China on notice.
We have a long border with Myanmar, although it's with the northeast part of the country - it's probably hard to mobilize troops in this area beyond existing brigades already there to fend off China. With a naval blockade and some air cover the march to Yangon should be fairly rapid especially if we could hold River Irrawaddy and shut down bridges and roads on the northeast part of the country leading to Yangon to block any late reinforcements of Chinese supplies. Yangon itself can be take from Bay of Bengal. All the three parts of the military have to work seamlessly.
Obviously the action has to be rapid to thwart Chinese support to Myanmar junta. I doubt they would join in directly in Myanmar itself. If we rapidly take Yangon, purge the junta of bad actors and hand over power to Aung Sun Su Kyi, and leave as rapidly, we have a high probability of success.
I am sure a democratic Myanmar may not agree with us on everything in the future and may even be hostile at times, just as the Bangladeshis are, but it would still have been the right thing to do.
Something for PMO to ponder, especially if the protest movement and the brutal reactionary repression continues. Pranab's
statement reinforces the silliness of our policy.