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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Nonsense About Terrorist State Stability

For years I have argued that stability of Pakistan and territorial integrity - the epicenter of global Islamic jihad and Islamic terrorism against Bharat - is not in our interest. Bharat Verma takes the same stand forcefully while talking of the danger of Pakiland Islamic jihad on Bharatiya democracy and secular majority.

Another falsehood perpetuated by the eternally helpless breed of Indians is that a stable Pakistan is in India's interest. It is not, stable or otherwise. Pakistan is a failed State. It is on the brink of disintegration. It simply needs to be helped to remove itself and the map redrawn. Otherwise, the cost to India will keep increasing disproportionately.

To take this war to the enemy, New Delhi needs a deliberate, graded and escalating response with a clear political and military objective to help Islamabad disintegrate:

  • Snap diplomatic relations immediately.
  • Declare Pakistan a terrorist State.
  • Discontinue all trains and bus services as well as trade and business transactions.
  • Announce renegotiations of the Indus Water Treaty as the terms unduly favour Pakistan.
  • Begin a process to regulate the water supplies and build new mechanisms to activate water flow controls.
  • Cancel permissions for over flights.
  • Seal the Nepal and Bangladesh borders on a priority basis.
  • Build a grand alliance of democracies by increasing their stakes in the burgeoning economic pie of India, to leverage their support against authoritarian regimes on our border including Pakistan.
  • Increase immediately FDI in the defence sector from 26 percent to 49 percent. This will help India to emerge as the most modern technology driven defence industry hub in Asia while making it profitable for Western companies to invest.

    Photonman said...


    I think among the list 'Announce renegotiations of the Indus Water Treaty as the terms unduly favour Pakistan.' is probably the most potent weapon.

    However, instead of talking of renegotiations right away, it is probably a good idea to subvert the treaty, making the treaty useless all but in its name. If this doesn't work out, even withdrawing from it might be considered.

    I wonder if a similar strategy towards Bangladesh would work - my doubts arise due to the China factor and geography of the place.

    Hersh Chaturvedi said...


    It is important to understand the stakes and strategies defining the current Indo-Pak confrontation. The two rivals have gone beyond the stage of negotiation, and are testing each others resolve. The next step may be a preemptive strike by one against the other, and from there-- war.


    I write this with no levity-- there is a strong case to be made against a war in the subcontinent. There is, however, also a case to be made in favor of one. I'd make the two, and hope to read your comments and views on the topic.

    The case against is indubitably fiercely strong and, long term interests given preeminence, a most incontrovertible one. I'd enunciate five "pillar" arguments in favor of Peace in the Indian subcontinent;

    The two nations are nuclear-armed.
    The countries are poor, and densely populated, making widespread misery inevitable.
    A war will make matters much worse
    External interference will increase after a war
    Multinational entities and capital will leave the region in droves, and development and commerce will be set back a century.

    However, as I said in the beginning, there is constrained logic that makes a hesitant case in favor of a war

    India, maybe unwillingly and even unwittingly, has become one of the global fronts in the "Jihadists" war.


    The core thesis I want to run by you is: "India cannot prosper inspite of Pakistan, and Pakistan can prosper because of India."

    To expand on the statement above, there is no way India can be a flourishing democracy without being a growth-economy. To grow, India needs foreign investment, for which it needs security, which it cannot have if the current relations with Pakistan continue. I hope my words don't sound critical of Pakistan-- it is great country, and a greater nation, though a suffering state. But Pakistan has the potential to hold India back.

    Equally, India has the potential to help Pakistan grow-- India, with it's mercantile success, experience with democracy and liberalism (I would unhesitatingly accept all specific criticisms of Hindu fundamentals,) and progress on property rights -- can help Pakistan build a stronger economy, fashion stronger institutions, reverse the politicization of the military, and reduce the exhausting spending on defence.